Bryan R. Routledge



The spark spread: An equilibrium model of cross-commodity price relationships in electricity
Bryan R. Routledge, Carnegie Mellon University
Duane J. Seppi, Carnegie Mellon University
Chester S. Spatt, Carnegie Mellon University
May 2001 Working Paper

ABSTRACT
This paper presents a simple competitive rational expectations model of spot and forward prices for "upstream" (e.g., electricity) and "downstream" commodities (e.g., natural gas and other fuels). We show that many of the most intriguing empirical features of electricity prices -- such as mean reversion, price-dependent heteroscedasticity, skewness, unstable electricity/fuel correlations -- follow naturally from the underlying economics of supply and demand.

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